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Jamison


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Jimmie wrote:

Maybe some of the disbelievers will be converted if we beat Truro on Saturday, which I fancy happening, if that happens depending on other results we could be just 6 points adrift, and then it is game on, just two wins to close the gap!

I watched a great recent interview with Thierry Henri, and was really impressed by his positive attitude, he was saying when he had 10 players to beat, he looked at is as if it was just 1 to beat, then if he beat him he had to beat just the next guy, so he just had to beat one guy at a time. That reminded me of our situation, we need 8 wins, but just have to get them one at a time. Have faith, we still have games against Dover and Taunton to come, and other winnable games.

 Can't we have all 8 wins at once and just be done with it? Every game starts off winnable, unfortunately it's the 90mins on the pitch that's been the problem. Bognor away and a weekend in butlins is much more appealing than a trip staines anyway. 



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KOTR


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If/when WUFC are down with Dover and Eastbourne ? all 3 go isthmian
Havant or Taunton ? Would probably go southern league
Leaving one from isthmian going southern also which could well be Bognor Regis who are closest to southern league teams

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Jamison


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Oh thanks a lot! Will have to tell the kids the holidays cancelled lol.

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The Poet


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Great memories of Butlins Bognor Regis as a kid. My daughter loved it there as well. Still got all the running medals from the Sports Days. Undefeated.
Having said that, there is a possibility that we could stay up.

Unlikely, but possible.

Got to find four teams who are more **** than we are.

Difficult to see at the moment. However, as long as we fight & shout things at the lino, we still have a prayer.


If the Wings are United...

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Squarevanmanthesecond


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KOTR wrote:

If/when WUFC are down with Dover and Eastbourne ? all 3 go isthmian
Havant or Taunton ? Would probably go southern league
Leaving one from isthmian going southern also which could well be Bognor Regis who are closest to southern league teams

 Looking at the Isthmian as it is now Hastings, Lewes, Bognor, Canvey, Whitehawk, Folkestone, Margate, add to the mix Dover and Eastbourne some coastal (or near coastal with Lewes) trips. I have left Concord out of the mix as it looks like they are doing a double relegation. I am afraid I can see us taking more fans to these away games than we would to home games at Tonbridge. 



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Squarevanmanthesecond wrote:

I am afraid I can see us taking more fans to these away games than we would to home games at Tonbridge. 

 I agree. If we play home games at Tonbridge, we will lose a lot of supporters who attend Welling games as a 'habit'. Once that 'habit' is broken, they won't come back. 

For seaside games, should we be relegated, we can possibly add Ramsgate and Lowestoft into the mix.



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N Jones


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Danson Mark wrote:
Squarevanmanthesecond wrote:

I am afraid I can see us taking more fans to these away games than we would to home games at Tonbridge. 

 I agree. If we play home games at Tonbridge, we will lose a lot of supporters who attend Welling games as a 'habit'. Once that 'habit' is broken, they won't come back. 

For seaside games, should we be relegated, we can possibly add Ramsgate and Lowestoft into the mix.

 Totally agree with this, i can't see many going to Tonbridge if it actually happens. 



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Jimmie


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I know the table doesnt make pretty reading, but the bottom 4 teams have virtually played the same number of games and pretty much have the same goal difference, and if Taunton go into freefall for the rest of the season, which seems likely now they are becoming virtually an academy side, then they will be in the bottom 4 in due course. It could well all be decided only when the final game is played. Us away to Slough! www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/national-league-south/table

A while back it felt like any of the bottom 8 could go down, now it just looks like the bottom 5 in big trouble, I am sure Taunton will finish in the bottom 4 below us as they are insolvent so cant buy their way out of trouble, if so we have a 1 in 4 chance of staying up, with us, Eastbourne, Havant and Dover at risk. We have Taunton soon, so the message is dont despair, look at the table, take into account Taunton's problems, and there is hope!!! The Poet expressed some hope the other day, and this could be another of our great escapes. 



-- Edited by Jimmie on Monday 22nd of January 2024 11:15:38 PM

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Jimmie


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Looking at the last 10 results of the most likely relegation teams to see the average points per game, then multiplying that by their remaining games, rounding up fractions, and then adding that to the points already gained produces the mini table below.

Dartford 8/30 0.8 48
Taunton 5/30 0.5 42
Havant 12/30 1.2 42
Us 8/30 0.8 41
Eastbourne 7/30 0.7 38
Dover 9/30 0.9 35

Form will change over the remaining games, but playing with ideas, it is an interesting snapshot that at this moment in time, going into the final quarter of the season, it is potentially closer than is widely seen. And with 5 dodgy teams, even 42 points may be enough to stay up this season instead of the usual 50 points, and like last season, goal difference may decide staying up or going down. So it is all very nailbiting and very far from over! Theme song for the rest of the season, David Soul, "Don't give up on us baby". This post is sponsored by statsrankers.com!


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The Poet


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My interested eye spotted this last night:
Taunton Town 0 Truro City 0

A good result for us.

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Jimmie


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The Poet is spot on keeping an eye on Taunton, I'd said here earlier reckon we will overtake them as I couldn't see them winning more than 2 games for the rest of the season. When we played them they didn't exploit the extra player advantage and fitness advantage of not having played a midweek game, as they wanted the draw, them getting as many as 2 more wins becomes doubtful. So the 5 point gap between them and us is likely to be closed by the end of the season.

A new massive problem to add onto their insolvency is just announced. They are now banned from any transfer activity, so can't sign new players, or extend contracts. Lots of their players left as they are worried Taunton wont pay them. They have been replaced by local college kids, but now Taunton can't even do that. So further departures or injuries, that can't be covered by new signings, will undermine them so much.

I wonder about Truro's finances, they were getting small crowds of around 170 playing home games at Plymouth, now I see here the Cornwall team are to play their home games in over twice as far away in Somerset, 130 miles away in Taunton! So likely even smaller crowds. Plus Taunton kept postponing matches due to poor pitches, so having an extra team playing there will only worsen their pitch.

I was surprised to see our average attendance this season is 750, that is really good bearing in mind our league position all season.

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Alan


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Mostly, in reading these comments, I agree with Jamo.

I admire Jimmie's optimism, but yes I do think he is the only one that thinks Welling will stay up. I pray he is right and we are all wrong.

If you look at the table our problem is we must out perform the teams around us but starting with a handicap that makes it difficult, certainly not impossible but bloody hard. Some of these teams have games in hand too. Taunton P28 Pts 33, Dartford P29 Pts 34, Truro P27 Pts 35 and Chippenham P30 Pts 38. That's a spread of 5 to 10 points behind and 0 to 3 matches less played. All the teams will have good and bad games with shock results along the way. We might need to find the equivalent of as much as 3 extra wins than one of them with only 16 games to play. That is a big ask.

I would like to see Rod Stringer remain as manager next season whether we stay up or not.

We have brought in some new strikers so maybe they will score the goals we need. Let's keep everything crossed.

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Alan wrote:

Mostly, in reading these comments, I agree with Jamo.

I admire Jimmie's optimism, but yes I do think he is the only one that thinks Welling will stay up. I pray he is right and we are all wrong.

If you look at the table our problem is we must out perform the teams around us but starting with a handicap that makes it difficult, certainly not impossible but bloody hard. Some of these teams have games in hand too. Taunton P28 Pts 33, Dartford P29 Pts 34, Truro P27 Pts 35 and Chippenham P30 Pts 38. That's a spread of 5 to 10 points behind and 0 to 3 matches less played. All the teams will have good and bad games with shock results along the way. We might need to find the equivalent of as much as 3 extra wins than one of them with only 16 games to play. That is a big ask.

I would like to see Rod Stringer remain as manager next season whether we stay up or not.

We have brought in some new strikers so maybe they will score the goals we need. Let's keep everything crossed.

 

Not so sure Johnny is the only one, Alan. Hemel away was a turning point for a few of us. It was like the tide was turning & we thoroughly deserved the victory. Then H & R, then Taunton. Seven points from nine. Admittedly, it's probably greater than 50% that we will be relegated but these new additions to the squad could tip the balance. If we can play like we did against Hemel & H & R, we stay up. 

A few D*rtford fans I know reckon they are going down.

Could be a huge turnout at Slough away to keep us up.

 



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Two ells in Welling


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Well said The Poet. Please take note Jimmie.

Yet another short post.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



-- Edited by Two ells in Welling on Friday 9th of February 2024 04:11:47 PM

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The Poet


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Good results in the league today. Three points this Saturday will do us nicely. Come on The Welling.

If the Wings are United...

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Jimmie


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We went into the Hemel game with us needing a win to help avoid R, them needing a win to boost play off chances, so both teams had so much at stake.

I missed Hemel, so catch up asked one of our fans who went what he thought of the game. He said we played as if we wanted it more. That is a real "wow" moment, it reflects so well on us if we were more motivated than a team needing a win for promotion. Maybe the turning point The Poet mentions.

I am confident about us ending safe as you see R teams, and they have a defeated look about them, demoralised from a season of bad results, already half beaten before kick off. But we always keep our self confidence on the pitch, heads don't drop even after conceding a goal. That positive spirit, added to fixing that lack of supply to the strikers, should see us safe.

The positive spirit is supported by recent results, here is a link to a table showing the latest form from our last 4 games, which I chose as it reflects as much as possible Rod's games in charge. Our 7 points from the last 4 games puts us in play off level of form, and the bottom 7 teams are good news from our perspective. www.footballwebpages.co.uk/national-league-south/form-guide/four



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Alan


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I hope you are correct. I want to stay up

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Odin73


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Dirtford lost again

Wonder what odds for 3 Kent clubs to be relegated you would get

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Jimmie


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www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/national-league-south/table shows 7 teams in trouble.

Dover P32 21 points 7 points below us having played 2 games more. 95% likely relegation. Only won 3 so far this season, James Dunne, who has now left, is still their second highest scorer on 4 goals.

Havant P31 24 points 4 points below us having played 1 game more. 70% likely relegation, as I have a sneaky feeling they could possibly get a run together.

Eastbourne P31 27 point, 1 point behind. 80% likely relegation, their new manager doesn't seem an improvement over the previous one, so nothing to suggest their results will improve.

Us P30 28 points. 20% likely relegation. The Taunton manager said we are on the ascendency, and we are unbeaten in our last 3 league games. I didn't get a sense Danny would fix our final third of the pitch issues, but Rod seems to understand striker positioning better, and recognises the need for more creativity. Only 2 teams have scored less than us, only 2 teams have conceded more, but The Poet is spot on, we just need 4 teams worse than us, and I think by the end of the season there will be 4 worse teams.

Taunton P29 33 points 5 points ahead. 90% likely relegation. They only had 2 fit subs last game, have 17 games to go in 10 weeks, so 2 games a week for 7 weeks with a squad of about 16 players, a transfer embargo, so can't replace any departures. They have 3/15 points from last 5 games, we got 7/15, so soon will close this gap.

Dartford P31 34 points 6 points ahead. 60 - 70% relegation. Lost 5 in a row, their fans can't see where their next goal will come from, let alone next win. This thread tells us Welling fans an interesting story! thedarts.eu/puredfc/viewtopic.php

Truro P27 35 points 7 points ahead, 50% likely relegation. I'd never thought of them as relegation possibles before, but they are in freefall and have a massive backlog 19 games in 10 weeks so say 2 more postponements (which is quite possible as they groundshare at Taunton which often has a waterlogged pitch) means they will have to play 3 games a week. Really lost heavily in recent games, and cant have much money with very small crowds. 



-- Edited by Jimmie on Wednesday 14th of February 2024 09:21:25 AM

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Jimmie


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The deteriorating Dartford situation is interesting, Dowson was like Warren, extremely unpopular with the fans because of the low standard of boring football played, and Dowson built an unimpressive squad, so lowered attendances and way below their play off target. They sacked him, and brought in a guy who regularly steps in to cover while new managers are appointed, but they have lost all 4 games with him so far and only scored 1 goal.

So they are stepping up their search for a new manager and have had 40 applicants for their job, and are interviewing. Football is a small world, given their situation of needing to appoint a manager popular with fans who can bring the club together and boost attendances, the name Danny Bloor springs to mind!

They are now only 6 points above us, having played an extra game, they have got Dover on Saturday, surely Dartford can't lose that too?! It is all ifs and buts, but if they lose and we win on Saturday, then we are just 3 points behind them, with a game in hand... roll on Saturday!


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Jimmie


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www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/national-league-south/table

The table is looking healthier for us now, as earlier in the season we were 9 points adrift, 3 wins away from safety, we have now cut that to just 4 points adrift, a win and a draw.

I loved the accurate comment from Taunton's manager that we are on the ascendency, it continues to be shown by points gained in the last 5 games Dartford 3/15, Taunton 3/15, us 8/15, Eastbourne 3/15, Havant 3/15, Dover 3/15.



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dfc


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Jimmie wrote:

Maybe some of the disbelievers will be converted if we beat Truro on Saturday, which I fancy happening, if that happens depending on other results we could be just 6 points adrift, and then it is game on, just two wins to close the gap!

I watched a great recent interview with Thierry Henri, and was really impressed by his positive attitude, he was saying when he had 10 players to beat, he looked at is as if it was just 1 to beat, then if he beat him he had to beat just the next guy, so he just had to beat one guy at a time. That reminded me of our situation, we need 8 wins, but just have to get them one at a time. Have faith, we still have games against Dover and Taunton to come, and other winnable games.

 Importantly goal difference is like an extra point 



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Great point made by dfc, and the table shows we now have a better goal difference than all teams below us, and soon will surely have better goal difference than Taunton above us. Our great results mean we have increased the gap on the teams below us, and closed the gap on teams above us. www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/national-league-south/table

Dover and Havant look increasingly dodgy, teams in the relegation area mostly only win against other relegation zone teams, losing to anyone else, whereas Welling have recently got points from top half teams like Worthing, Hampton and Tonbridge, results teams around us are unlikely to match.

Dartford had an unconvincing 2 -1 win against bottom placed Dover, scoring with a deflection and penalty, and have Taunton next, so another likely 3 points, but apart from those two games hard to see where their wins will come from, so they could soon start falling back down the table once playing tougher teams than Dover and Taunton.

Truro and Taunton fixture backlog due to the Taunton pitch is sad, Taunton said it is no point putting in drainage as they are built on a tip. So their problems are kind of self inflicted. They've both got to play 17 games in 9 weeks, we've only got to play 14 games, so we will have more rest than them.

Our form of 11/15 points now is more play off level than bottom 4 level.



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dfc


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Its absolutely all about results so no excuses our side. 
we are playing better now and creating lots of chances. We wasnt before. 
however the truth is were conceding a lot of chances too, so weve no idea how this is going to go. 
slight concern over some of the decent results youre getting. 
its a shame this battle is not at the other end of the table, it would be exciting rather than depressing. 



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St Albans a tough, tough game and we should win today. 



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dfc wrote:

St Albans a tough, tough game and we should win today. 

 St Albans away obviously not an easy game. Truro at home on Tuesday. Would be looking to win one of these.

D*rtford v Taunton crucial relegation battle. Burman under some serious pressure if you fail to win today. Aveley at home for you on Tuesday & they are no mugs. Even though you scraped a 2-1 win at Dover, after a losing streak, you still might have to rely on young Ollie to keep you up.

You did say that Welling were going down, Mr. dfc. You now have serious doubts about that.



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dfc


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Yes I have to say Im not sure if youll go down and Im not sure well stay up. 
our Manager is not under pressure from the supporters but obviously the league position is the pressure on its own. 
we talk about our clubs but there are two other clubs in a bad position even if theyve played less games. 
we are playing better there is no doubt since  Dowse went. 
I think we will stay up yes but I can not be sure. 
I think you still have a chance of going down but Im not sure. 

there is no doubt for us today is massive , imagine we lose and you win. 
but looking at the games we have I think theres more chance of you losing and us winning. 

everything is too hard to call and think everyone knows youve had a few decent results recently 



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dfc
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What a pointless message DFC

But Im not sure but I may be sure

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I was asked a question, I answered it with an honest opinion ,  keep up. 



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Hypotheticals dfc, please don't get like Jimmie.

You, as an oppositions accepted visitor here, well I'm just disappointed you didn't conclude as I hope for, that "we both stay up."



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bexleylion wrote:

Hypotheticals dfc, please don't get like Jimmie.

You, as an oppositions accepted visitor here, well I'm just disappointed you didn't conclude as I hope for, that "we both stay up."

 Well said bexleylion. 

Not a great deal changed in the table after yesterday but D*rtford only managing a draw against Taunton definitely suits us.



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dfc has a remarkable ability to cover all options, simultaneously seeing the glass half empty AND the glass half full!

With roughly 12 games to go and 36 points to play for for most teams, in theory room for escape for all the teams in the bottom 8 (putting Torquay in there once their 10 point deduction is applied), as it now looks that it is back to 8 teams being in trouble. Working up the table:

Dover look gone, 0/15 recent points, 13 points from safety, only 3 wins all season.

Havant also look extremely likely to go, 4/15, 9 points from safety, nothing to suggest they will suddenly get the wins they need to stay up.

Eastbourne 6/15, I think they will be lucky and end up above 4 teams worse than them.

Us 9/15, great stuff, us getting so many points has a double benefit of creating a gap between us and the teams below, and closed the gap on the teams above.

Taunton 4/15, I am starting to wonder if they will stay up after all. Their manager clearly now just aims to get a draw, and if so 4 draws from their last 5 games shows that may work for them. But 2 or 3 games a week for the rest of the season is a bugger for them.

Truro 1/15 the wheels have fallen of their side, and like Taunton are screwed with 2 or 3 games a week. Likely to go down.

Dartford 4/15, from Dover and Taunton, seem to have a poor defence and attack, and only get results against very poor teams. Odd fixtures, as 3 of their last 4 games are against poor teams Truro, Havant and Eastbourne, so maybe a very late survival from those games, as cant see them getting much from matches before those.

Torquay 2/15, after 10 point deduction just 4 points ahead of us, with us a game in hand, in freefall, maybe another team players will jump ship from, as they are insolvent. I am open to correction on this, but if they are relegated on points, and haven't settled their debts by the June league AGM, they would then be relegated again, so end up 2 divisions below NLS. Likely to go down.



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Wow, jumping above 2 teams after our win against Truro is great news. So interesting to see Truro in action, I expect they'll go down, so good to see them play to get an idea of them as a team. Like Taunton, I feel sorry for them, the sheer grind of each playing 2 (and maybe 3) games a week will catch up with them, as Truro were fresh against us, after their postponements, but once all games and lack of recovery time kick in, they will both struggle even more.

The National League table is also interesting to keep an eye on, for an idea of who may be relegated and so play us next season.

Ebbsfleet's change of manager has led to improved results, so they are now out of the relegation zone.

Dorking Wanderers are now in the relegation zone. Their manager keeps mentioning the challenge of being 1 of 2 part time teams in that division. Their YouTube shows on their matches taught me so much about football, well worth a watch. I'm always amused by their manager shouting at his players in matches "Relax! Relax!" as there can be few things more stressful for a player than the manager shouting at them in a match to relax! But I love banter and wind ups, so if they get relegated I will thoughtfully and loudly encourage Marc White in next season's match against us "Marc White, Relax! Relax!"

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The table looks much healthier, from a low of being 9 points adrift, we're now 3 points above the drop zone. That 12 point turnaround in such a short time, getting points against lots of the top teams, is remarkable. Someone online said Rod is God. I won't go that far, but he is definitely saving us!

Torquay's 10 point deduction for going into administration isn't imposed yet, even though the owner pulled out saying he will no longer fund the team, and no one has bought the club. If they get that deduction they, Dartford and Truro will be just 1 point ahead of us, and we'll soon overtake them if we maintain our recent form of unbeaten in our last 7 games, while teams around us lose most games.

Dartford have brought in a new manager ex Welling manager Ady Pennock, after their caretaker manager only got 4/24 points. But appointing a new manager with no recent experience of this league (I would think knowing this league is a necessity) and a mixed track record as a manager seems quite a gamble. Their fans seem totally underwhelmed by his appointment. Hopefully they stay up with us, as it would be a shame to lose that local rivalry on the pitch next season. And besides, Jamison needs a replacement for Dowson as a drinking buddy! (Yes, I noticed who first posted here news on the new Dartford manager...)

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I see that the Dartford v Worthing game was postponed today which it seems many of their fans seemed to be happy about. I expect to see several loan signings for them from Bournemouth, FGR, and Gillingham over the next few days. I hope their fans dont expect free flowing football but prepare themselves for the ball to be launched down the channels at every opportunity. I hope they and ourselves manage to scramble enough points to avoid the dreaded drop. They hate us and we hate them but its all good fun usually.

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Keeping an interested eye on the league table
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Interested to hear that Dartford flatly refused a ground share. I suppose they have Charlton U21, but get the feeling they wouldn't have done it anyway. Also Bromley wanting a extortionate amount, it seems Tonbridge or Ebbsfleet being the only, within budget, options.



-- Edited by 50p head on Sunday 3rd of March 2024 03:56:29 PM

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Jimmie


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Keeping an interested eye on the league table
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That mention of Dartford makes me think again of the possibility of them going down, as it's all very well changing the manager, but if the players aren't up to standard the managerial change won't really make much difference. 5 of their last 10 fixtures are against top 8 teams, so they'll probably have to win 3 of their last 4 games against Eastbourne, Havant and Truro to have a chance of staying up. Truro were much better than I expected, in a way not that different from Braintree.

I haven't kept up with how other local League teams are doing, so catching up on that it is a shock to see their problems, Palace are 7th from bottom 8 points above relegation, Millwall are 7th from bottom 1 point above relegation, and Charlton are 7th from bottom 4 points above relegation. And of course we are 5th from bottom, 3 points above relegation. I'm worried about Charlton, as they're on their 12th manager/ caretaker manager from 2021 onwards, and have just got Nathan Jones as their new manager, who is even worse than Warren!

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Jimmie


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Keeping an interested eye on the league table
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Bloody hell, this R is nailbiting, as we are unbeaten in 8, yet still only 3 points above the dreaded R, so nothing will be clear for weeks and weeks and weeks. Maybe even having to go to our last game at Slough before we know our fate.

We are not the only team sweating on this, a certain fairly local team are also discussing their prospects on their fans site, and I love the reply to the comment

Post "Looking closely at the table i think the current bottom 3 are down!! And its between: Us, Welling, Truro & Taunton who join them??"

Reply "Ill venture to narrow it down to Us, Truro and Taunton. I think Welling have the edge to mount a run. Its gonna be tighter than a nuns chuff!"

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Jamison


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Keeping an interested eye on the league table
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Tauntons game tonight is off

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Squarevanmanthesecond


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RE: Keeping an interested eye on the league table
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Truro are at Gloucester City again on Saturday with a 19.30 kick off against Chelmsford. Gloucester City have a 15.00 kick off at  home as well. 



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