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Jimmie


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The Welling and football shrewd financial speculation thread
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I've been looking forward to the NLS odds. A few bookmakers have started quoting odds for the new NLS season, interesting to see their views. I think Dorking are the most likely winners, so 7 - 1 is a big price, maybe each way for top 3 as it is hard to see them not finishing top 3. Chelmsford look a big price at 14 - 1. Surprised to see newly promoted Hornchurch as short as 12 - 1. Although there are no relegation odds, in effect the ones at the bottom of the betting are the ones they must consider most likely for relegation, interesting choice for second most likely to go down, I'll wait for all bookies to offer prices before putting an each way bet on us, as we could sneak a third place finish and when more prices are available we'll be much bigger than 50 - 1, even though we should be much shorter.  

Maidstone 6    5     5     5                                                                                                                                   

Dorking  5         7            7            7                                                                                                                    

Torquay  10      10          10          10                                                                                                                  

Boreham Wood 8        10          10          10                                                                                                   

Chelmsford 14             12          12          12                                                                                                   

Worthing 11    14          14          14                                                                                                                  

Hornchurch 16             12          12          12                                                                                                   

Chesham 16                  14          14          14                                                                                                   

Bath City 20                   20          20          20                                                                                                   

Hampton & Richmond 20      20          20          20                                                                                    

Eastbourne Borough14           20          20          20                                                                                    

St Albans 20   20          20          20                                                                                                                  

Farnborough 22           25          25          25                                                                                                   

Aveley25          20          20          20                                                                                                                  

Slough 25         25          25          25                                                                                                                  

Salisbury City 28         25          25          25                                                                                                   

Weston-Super-Mare 40                                                                                                                                 

Chippenham Town  40            33          33          33                                                                                    

Tonbridge Angels 40          40          40          40                                                                                    

Enfield Town  40          40          40          40                                                                                    

Weymouth 40          40          40          40                                                                                                   

Hemel Hempstead  33            50          50          50                                                                                    

Welling 40           50          50          50                                                                                                   

Truro City 40          50          50          50          



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Jimmie


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There's a YouTube guy who advises Football Manager on NLS, and each season posts predictions on the coming season and updates on clubs' new signings, so a handy summary of summer transfer market. Last season he was fairly accurate about the top and bottom of the table, no mean feat when teams often totally rebuild over the summer, but he knows the players so can anticipate how teams will perform. It is a long vid, about 40 minutes, but no cheating and scrolling to the end to see his prediction for Welling's final position (like I did after about 15 minutes into the vid, and then watched the rest in small bites). He sees the top 2 the same as me, though I've them the other way round to him. His estimation of our final position is much shrewder than bookies, and matches my thoughts on our finish. Interesting comments from him about our goal scoring, but if pre season is anything to go by, we'll have goals from all over, rather than just from strikers. www.youtube.com/watch

Last season we were 80 - 1 for the title, so once more bookies put up NLS prices I expect we will be a bigger price than 50 - 1, which is actually bad value if they really think we are the second worst team.

A bit of a weird betting suggestion, Man City to get relegated at 16 - 1. Obviously they wont get relegated on league performance, but if the investigation about them fraudulently covering up their finances for many seasons goes against them, a possible punishments is automatic relegation. They have antagonised the FA by not cooperating with the investigation, it wouldnt be a surprise if they are relegated as punishment. The verdict is due before Christmas, if it goes against them they will appeal, then the question would be would that appeal complete in time for the relegation to happen before the end of the current season.

On reflection, that Cray Valley loss yesterday was on the back of lots of psfs, which will catch up with the guys eventually, and maybe yesterday was the game it caught up with us. But we played 3 triallists, they only played 1, and lots of our signings are still settling in, whereas their team was very settled.

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Jimmie


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As we are about a fifth of the way into the season it's interesting to see how the bookies (and by implication the public) see the emerging league, the latest NLS title odds are

Boreham Wood 10/3 5 9/2 3 9/2 9/2 3 9/2
Dorking 7 8 6 8 6 6 8 6
Torquay 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
Hemel Hempstead 7 5 9 6 9 9 6 9
Eastbourne Borough 12 10 12 12 12 12 12 12
Farnborough 11 16 16 14 16 16 14 16
Slough 16 10 14 12 14 14 12 14
Worthing 11 16 12 14 12 12 14 12
Weston-Super-Mare20 20 14 20 14 14 20
Maidstone 25 16 28 25 28 28 25 28
Hornchurch 33 33 25 33 25 25 33 25
Chelmsford 22 20 33 33 33 33 33 33
Tonbridge Angels33 33 20 33 20 20 33 20
Bath City 40 40 20 33 20 20 33 20
Chesham 33 40 16 16 16 16 16 16
Truro City 40 20 40 20 40 40 20 40
Chippenham Town 66 66 40 66 40 40 66 40
Hampton & Richmond 66 66 50 66 50 50 66 50
Welling 66 66 50 66 50 50 66 50
Salisbury City 100 100 50 100 50 50 100 50
Aveley 200 200 150 200 150 150 200 150
St Albans 500 500 250 500 250 250 500 250
Enfield Town 750 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Weymouth 500 750 500 500 500 500 500 500

So interesting that Boreham Wood are such a short price favourite, even though they are not yet as high as expected in the league. Maidstone's odds have slumped. The bottom 3 teams are seen in particularly unfavourable light. Our odds are always worse than they should be because we have less followers than many other clubs so less back us, so the bookies dont have big commitments on us, but we are only 6 points below third place, so still in with an each way shout.


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Riverstown


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You really do have quite a lot of time on your hands dont you!

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Jimmie


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Yes, but it is time well spent. For example, the other week I got a free £2 bet on Betfair, so used my superior football knowledge to take a wild risk and lumped on PSG at 1 - 3, so now I have to spend my precious time working out how to spend my 68P profit!

Welling have unaccountably drifted out to 250 - 1 at William Hills for the NSL, I'll be honest, I think the title may just be out of reach, but you never know, it is a season where everyone is beating everyone else, already most teams have lost 2 or more, so if we regain our early season form/ last season's play off form with Rod, we could sneak a play off spot, so today I've backed us each way, win and 1,2,3 for a place, quarter odds, so 62 - 1 for the top 3 place half of a bet is a long shot, but stranger things have happened.

Because of the unexpectedly tough opening fixtures we have already played 5 of the top 7 - Boreham, Hemel, Torquay, Weston, Farnborough - so played most of the teams fancied to win the NLS, they all strike me fairly evenly matched, and arguably of these 5 only Boreham and Hemel were better than us when we played them, so I just hope we get the consistency back that's needed for a top 7 finish.





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Alan


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I will be happy if we finish 5th bottom. We have no chance of finishing 3rd unless something drastic happens. We can't score goals! By the end of the season I expect to see Torquay United and Boreham Wood as the top 2. Not sure which way around

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